Today's topic is only one - which is a good time to buy a mobile phone. The purpose of this topic is only one: to buy the desired machine at the right price. In addition to taking channels/going shopping/going to Hong Kong and Macao, for many users, choosing the right time to upgrade is the most cost-effective way.
The additional effect of this topic is that you can see the price reduction speed of different brands/models of mobile phones, how fast they are reducing prices in different periods of time, and which brand's price reduction is more fierce/stable.
The pricing methods of mobile phone manufacturers can be broadly classified into two types: one is the "ladder price reduction" of Nokia, Samsung and other established manufacturers, and the other is from The "replacement price reduction" started. The former usually enters the market at a high price, and continuously reduces the price until delisting; The latter is to stick to the price, and it is not until the next generation model comes into the market that a substantial price reduction is made.
The price decline of traditional international manufacturers will present a colorful and different price curve due to factors such as time and the strength of the same generation of models. At this time, we can only make specific judgments according to different manufacturers and models.
Samsung
Samsung has two flagship series, S and Note, both of which are changed every year. The former is updated every March to April, and the latter is updated every September or so, just half a year apart. In a disguised form, a flagship is released every six months, but there is an obvious price difference between the two series.
We selected the flagship Galaxy S4, Galaxy S5, Note3 and Note4 in the past two years as samples, and selected the earliest Unicom version. Except that Note4 uses the data from Store 1 (JD Note4 fluctuates too much), all other data are from JD. After removing small price rises and falls and processing data in 7 days, the following chart is obtained.
Direct time line price comparison. The first interesting thing is that JD unexpectedly raised the price in the first school season of 2014 (September October), and the more popular the models are, the more the price increases will be. The flagship S5 in the current season increased by 900 yuan.
After replacing the horizontal axis with the length of time to market (in days), there are several interesting things in it. First, the price reduction of Note series is more stable than that of S series, and it is more conservative. The price difference between the two series has remained around 800-1000 for the same length of time. However, the price of the Galaxy S5, the sagging generation of Samsung, dropped much faster than that of the S4, setting a record.
In terms of release price, flagship models of international brands are generally priced around 5288 (exactly The price range of 5199 yuan, S45299 yuan, S55799 yuan, note35399 yuan, and note4 yuan are relatively close.
Two months after its release, the S series will have a substantial price reduction, which will not be stable until 6.5 months later. Half a year after the release, the price of S4 is 3800 yuan, and that of S5 is 3500 yuan. Half a year later, the price of Note3 is 4700 yuan, and that of Note4 is 4600 yuan.
Their next big price cut will not start until 4-5 months later (that is, 10 months after the release). After the emergence of the new generation of models (one year after the release), the price of S4 is 3200 yuan and that of S5 is 3000 yuan. After that, they will still slowly reduce the price, but S4 can still maintain the price of 2500 yuan after one and a half years.
Sony
Although Dafa has only one flagship series, it has the only half a year and one shift strategy in the industry (September and March).
The starting price of the three generations of Dafa flagship is 4999 yuan. There is an obvious price range between different generations of models, and the price difference at the same time is between 500 yuan and 800 yuan. It is worth noting that Z2 was released at the end of February 2014, but the ticket was skipped several times, and it was only sold in China at the end of May.
After using the release days as the horizontal axis, we found that Dafa's price curve was not scientific at all. After the new model came out, there was no obvious price reduction for the old model. In addition, in theory, the Z3, which has little upgrade significance, should lose its price the fastest; The Z2 with the highest cost performance ratio should be the most stable. However, the fact is that the fall of Z2 (the slope of the price curve) is greater than that of Z3.
The period of the sharpest price decline in Dafa was longer than that of Samsung. In the first three months, Z1 fell to 4500 yuan, Z2 to 3700 yuan, and Z3 to 4000 yuan. After that, their decline decreases; Half a year later, Z1 is 4500 yuan, Z2 is 3500 yuan, and Z3 is 3800 yuan. One year later, Z1 fell to 2600 and Z2 fell to about 2200.
HTC、LG、 NOKIA
Price timeline of three models
The horizontal axis is the number of days for sale
HTC M8 was released in May 2014 with a starting price of 5288 yuan, which fell to 4100 yuan two months later, 4500 yuan three months later, 3800 yuan four months later, 3600 yuan six months later, and 3000 yuan a year later. Unfortunately, by the time the M9 was launched, the M8 was already out of stock.
LG G3 is in a special situation. It was first sold in South Korea in May 2014, but it officially entered China in early August, so the starting price is only 3999 yuan, but it is still more expensive than the HTC M8 in the same period. In addition, its price has rarely changed. It dropped to 3500 a month after its release, to 3200 six months later, and now to 2800 nearly nine months later.
The situation of Nokia, the king of price cutting, is also very special. The original flagship Lumia930 was released in April 2014, but it was launched in China in September of the same year, so it is a little younger here, represented by the Lumia1520 launched in November 2013. It should be the Note series in the Lumia series, so the list price will be several hundred yuan higher than the normal flagship of Nokia. Because JD has no Nokia 1520 for sale, Amazon data is used here (as a result, price data fluctuates significantly).
Lumia1520 entered the market at a price of 4999. It took two and a half months to drop to 4500. Four months later, it dropped to 4000. Half a year later, it took 3500. It took nine months to fall below the 3000 mark. One year later, it was 2700. The lowest price was only 2600 (nearly 14 months later). Unfortunately, we can also see from the curve of Lumia1520 that Amazon has also raised its prices in the Lunar New Year
Simplify the price data of the above models, compare the prices of different brands/models, and the price changes after listing at different times. Because they are flagship aircraft, their starting price is around 5000 (except for LG G3).
Just looking at the price point in three months, everyone is in the price range of 3700-4100 (the note series is in 4700). HTC easily won the title of Nokia's king of price cuts, falling to 4000 in three months, but the price drops slowly later;
At the time point of half a year, they all fell to the price of 3500-3800 (the Note series is still at the price of 4200), and the price difference of different models at this time point is the smallest;
One year after the launch, Samsung and HTC can still maintain around 3000 yuan, but Sony and Nokia have dropped to about 2500 yuan.
Stable price model
Compared with the "step price reduction" of Nokia, Samsung, Sony and other old brands, the Apple style "generation change price reduction" significantly reduces the difficulty of decision-making. In addition to Apple, , Meizu, Vivo, Oppo and other emerging domestic manufacturers are almost the same.
The price of the iPhone will only be reduced once a year when the new product is released in September. The price reduction is generally about 800 yuan, and the reduction of the next generation model can be superimposed. That is, the model two years ago will generally be reduced by about 1600 compared with the initial launch. Of course, the premise is that it is still sold.
So no matter whether you want to buy a new model or an old model, it is recommended that you start from October to November when you want to change the machine. As the old saying goes: buy early and enjoy early, and there is no discount when you buy late. In addition, Virgo users are advised to avoid the first batch of machines. When there are major process or technical improvements (such as new process glass and metal treatment), the first batch of machines will generally have small defects that do not affect the use.
However, for the domestic manufacturers whose prices are generally between 2000 yuan and 3000 yuan, they rarely cut their prices before the replacement, even if the reduction is only a few hundred yuan at most. Unfortunately, after the launch of new models in the same series, the old models will generally stop selling immediately, so there is no so-called replacement price reduction. Xiaomi usually launches new products in August September, Meizu in September, while Vivo, Oppo and other manufacturers have more model series and have not yet fixed them, but they are generally concentrated between September and December.
In addition, the price of the newly returned motorcycle has not been reduced since MotoX, so its pricing strategy should also be a replacement price reduction. The motoX series is updated in August and September every year, and the relevant parameters have just been released recently. It is estimated that the release time will be around August.
When buying the machines from these manufacturers, it is also recommended that you try to buy them when they first launch a new machine (if you can get them, of course).
summary
There are a lot of things mentioned above. To sum up, Apple and the domestic flagship have to buy them when they are first launched. To buy Samsung, Sony HTC、LG、 If Nokia and other international brands are flagship, but the budget is insufficient, it is more appropriate 2-3 months after the model is released.
Samsung will go through the first falling price period and enter a stable period of four months in about two months after its launch. The "translation" is that the S series starts from June to July, and the Note series starts from November to December;
The price drop slowed down three months after Sony's release, and the price drop between six months and one year after Dafa's release was obvious. Sony is also suitable for buying three months after Sony's release (June, July, December to January of the next year);
After three months, it dropped to 4000, setting a record price drop. After three months, it dropped to 400, and after six months, it dropped to 600, which is quite strong. HTC and LG, which launched new phones in March and April, are more suitable from June to July, while Nokia can start from July to August.
To sum up, June, July and December of each year are good times for replacing and buying a new machine, and many flagship machines will be reduced to appropriate prices during this time. Of course, if the requirements for mobile phones are not high, it would be a very safe and rational way to directly buy the flagship of the previous generation of international brands.